WASHINGTON | Investigations have now ensnared Donald Trump’s White House, campaign, transition, inauguration, charity and business. For Trump, the political, the personal and the deeply personal walls may be crumbling.
Less than two years into Trump’s administration, his business associates, political advisers and family members are being probed, along with the practices of his deceased father. On Saturday, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke became the fourth Cabinet member to exit the White House under an ethical cloud, having sparked 17 investigations into his actions on the job, by one watchdog’s count.
All of this with the first special counsel investigation against a president in two decades looming over Trump’s head, spinning out charges and strong-arming guilty pleas from minions while keeping in suspense whether the president — “Individual 1” in prosecutor Robert Mueller’s coded legalese — will end up accused of criminal behavior himself.
The scale of the scrutiny has shaped Trump’s presidency, proving a reliable distraction from his governing agenda. So far, much of it has been launched by federal prosecutors and government watchdogs that eschew partisanship. The intensity is likely to increase next year when Democrats assume control of the House and the subpoena power that comes with it.
Although Trump is dismissive of the investigations as politically motivated “witch hunts,” his rocket-fueled Twitter account frequently betrays just how absorbed he is by the criticism. He’s also said to watch hours of television coverage on milestone days in the investigations.
“It saps your energy, diverts your attention and you simply can’t lead because your opponents are up in arms against you,” Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political scientist and historian, said of the scrutiny. “It weakens your friends and emboldens your enemies.”
Almost halfway through his term, Trump is struggling to follow through on his central campaign promises. He may end the year without a Republican-led Congress giving him the $5 billion he wants for a border wall. And he’s previewed few legislative priorities for 2019.
Even if he had, it’s not likely the new Democratic House majority would have much incentive to help a president weakened by investigations stack up wins as his own re-election campaign approaches.
Perhaps not since Bill Clinton felt hounded by a “vast wing conspiracy,” as Hillary Clinton put it, has a president faced such duress from investigation.
This jeopardy has come with the GOP in control of Congress and the Justice Department driving at least three separate criminal investigations — the Mueller probe looking into possible collusion, obstruction of justice or other wrongdoing in contacts between the Trump campaign and Russia; the New York campaign-finance case involving hush money paid to Trump’s alleged lovers; and now a case from New York, first reported by The Wall Street Journal this past week, examining the finances and operations of Trump’s inaugural committee and whether foreign interests made illegal payments to it.
Behind those matters is a litany of lawsuits or inquiries from state attorneys general and other parties connected mainly to Trump businesses.
At best, the investigations are overshadowing what has been healthy economic news. At worst, the probes are a threat to the presidency, Trump’s family and his business interests.
The deep diving will only intensify in the new year when Democrats take over the House. They are expected to start their own investigations and could pursue impeachment, though party leaders caution they may face a political backlash by taking that step.
Even if Trump avoids impeachment, the Democratic investigations will cause headaches. Administration officials will have to testify before Congress and lawmakers will seek a trove of documents, probably including Trump’s tax returns, which he has refused to make public.
A skeletal White House staff may struggle to keep up. A tally by the Brookings Institution finds more than 60 percent of Trump’s top aides have left in the first two years, a turnover rate exceeding the previous five presidents. Additionally, 10 Cabinet secretaries have departed, more than Barack Obama, George W. Bush and Clinton lost in two years. The shake-ups now have left Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s budget chief, pulling double duty indefinitely as the president’s chief of staff.
That combination makes it hard to imagine a president effectively engaged in policy, even if — as in the case of Clinton — the drawn-out investigations lead to an impeachment that fails to remove the president.
“The modern presidency is extraordinarily complex and demanding so you need the president’s full attention,” Jillson says. “Where your attention should be, you’re also thinking about meeting with your lawyers.”
As the investigations mount, few Republicans have distanced themselves publicly from Trump. But privately, some lawmakers are concerned that the investigations will damage his re-election prospects and their own chances in 2020 House and Senate races.
The federal campaign finance probe has placed GOP lawmakers in a particularly awkward position. Prosecutors — as well as Trump’s longtime personal lawyer Michael Cohen and a tabloid company that has long been an ally — claim that Trump directed hush payments to keep women quiet about alleged affairs in the closing weeks of the 2016 campaign. Such a payment would violate campaign finance laws. Cohen was sentenced this past week to three years in prison.
Underscoring the tightrope act for Republicans, outgoing Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah initially stated that he didn’t much care about Trump being implicated in Cohen’s crime, then thought better of his words.
“I made comments about allegations against the president that were irresponsible and a poor reflection on my lengthy record of dedication to the rule of law,” Hatch said in a statement Friday.
Five people in Trump’s orbit have pleaded guilty to charges in the continuing Mueller probe. Among them, Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, for a time in Trump’s presidential campaign. George Papadopoulos, a lower-level campaign adviser, was sentenced to 14 days in prison and is out. The others are Michael Flynn, who was Trump’s first national security adviser in office and is to be sentenced Tuesday, and Cohen, who is expected to begin his sentence in March.
In addition, the special counsel’s office says Flynn, in giving 19 interviews and turning over a mountain of documents, has assisted in a criminal investigation that has yet to be revealed.
In other words, there’s no end in sight.